Centrum Pomocy Prawnej im. Haliny Nieć » Current Migration Trends in Poland

In 2024, Poland experienced significant changes in migration and international protection. Data from the Border Guard and the Office for Foreigners show a substantial increase in the number of applications for international protection, as well as dynamic shifts in migration routes. Analyzing these trends is crucial for understanding the challenges and directions of migration policy in the coming years. Based on our reports and information obtained from the Border Guard and the Office for Foreigners, we have prepared an analysis of changes in applications for international protection in Poland in 2024. The full report is available in the Publications section.

Record Increase in Applications for International Protection

In 2024, there was a sharp increase in the number of applications for international protection – 11,460 applications covering 14,524 individuals. Compared to 2023, when 6,316 applications were submitted, this represents an 81% increase. This was the highest year-over-year increase in the number of applications since the migration crisis on the Polish-Belarusian border.

The largest group of applicants for protection were citizens of Ukraine, Belarus, and Russia. However, it is worth noting that the growth dynamics were not uniform. The number of applications submitted by Ukrainian citizens more than doubled (from 1,662 to 5,912), applications from Belarusian citizens remained at a similar level (3,506), while applications from Russian citizens decreased by half (from 1,527 to 797).

The number of applications submitted by people from outside Europe also increased significantly. Citizens of Ethiopia, Eritrea, and Somalia recorded increases of over 700% compared to the previous year, and applications submitted by Sudanese citizens increased tenfold.

Irregular Border Crossings – Changing Migration Routes

Border Guard data show that in 2024, irregular crossings of the Polish-Belarusian border increased by 339% compared to 2023. In the first half of 2024, 1,581 such cases were recorded, compared to 360 a year earlier. Among the detained foreigners, Syrian, Somali, and Eritrean citizens were the most numerous.

In contrast, the so-called Slovak route, previously used mainly by Syrian citizens, almost completely ceased – the number of irregular crossings of the Polish-Slovak border decreased by 84%. This indicates a decline in migration through the Balkans and a shift in migration flows to Poland’s eastern border.

Who Receives Protection in Poland?

In 2024, the recognition rate of international protection applications was highest among citizens of countries affected by armed conflicts. Protection was granted to 98% of Ukrainian applicants, 94% of Belarusian applicants, and 95% of Afghan applicants.

For Russian citizens, the recognition rate was significantly lower – 23%, indicating a stricter approach to applications from this country. Additionally, a high percentage of case dismissals concerned people from East Africa, including Eritrea and Somalia – for many foreigners, Poland was merely a transit country.

Migration Seasonality and Changes in National Composition

Data from the Halina Nieć Legal Aid Center indicate that the increase in the number of foreigners applying for international protection was seasonal. The highest number of applications was submitted from April to September, coinciding with an increase in irregular crossings of the Polish-Belarusian border. During this period, the number of clients from the Horn of Africa and Sudan significantly increased.

In autumn and winter, migration from these regions declined, while cases involving citizens from West and Central Africa, such as Guinea, the Democratic Republic of Congo, and Cameroon, became more prominent. If the eastern migration route becomes active again in spring 2025, further shifts in the national composition of those seeking international protection in Poland are likely.

Detention of Foreigners in Poland

In 2024, 2,278 individuals were placed in guarded centers for foreigners in Poland, representing 16% of all applicants for international protection. The average length of stay in these centers varied by location, ranging from 55 days in Lesznowola to 118 days in Kętrzyn. Among the detainees were also unaccompanied minors, who were initially placed in centers for adults and later transferred to care and educational institutions.

The detention system in Poland raises numerous concerns, particularly regarding living conditions and procedures for identifying individuals requiring special protection. There is a continued need to improve legal support mechanisms and alternatives to detention, especially for families with children and vulnerable individuals.

Conclusions and Future Challenges

Variable Migration Dynamics – The sharp increase in applications for international protection in 2024, particularly from Ukraine and East Africa, demonstrates that Poland is playing an increasingly significant role in Europe’s migration system.
Poland as a Destination and Transit Country – Applications from Ukrainian and Belarusian citizens are almost always approved, whereas applicants from Africa and the Middle East primarily see Poland as a stop on their journey.
Changing Migration Routes – The decline of the Balkan route and the increase in irregular crossings on the Polish-Belarusian border require adjustments in migration policy and asylum procedures.
Migration Seasonality – The increase in the number of foreigners applying for protection in spring and summer indicates the need for flexible adaptation of resources for legal aid and migrant integration.

Monitoring and analyzing migration trends are essential for effectively shaping migration policy in Poland.